Analysis Shows Angela Alsobrooks is the Democrat Who Can Beat Hogan
Next Tuesday, all eyes will be on the Maryland Democratic Senate primary because whoever wins may very well be responsible for keeping Democrats in the majority.
The threat former Governor Larry Hogan poses in November is the talk of the town amongst Maryland primary voters. Rightfully so. If Democrats fail to hold Maryland, it’s very unlikely they will hold a majority in the Senate come 2025.
The candidate who takes on Hogan must consolidate support and mobilize Democrats — especially the significant Black voter population that will turn out in this presidential election year. Using the available data, it is clear Angela Alsobrooks is the strongest Democrat to take on Hogan.
Maryland is relatively unique in that Black voters account for 32% of the voting population, a larger share than any “blue state” — those that are consistently won by the Democratic presidential nominee. Given that fact and the reliably Democratic white liberal base centered around the DC suburbs, no Republican candidate can win in Maryland without persuading a significant share of the Black vote.
Hogan did exactly that in 2014 and 2018 when he won a substantial share of the Black vote in his gubernatorial elections. While exit polls are not available for either election, we can assess Hogan’s support from Black voters at the county-level. In Prince George’s County, home to 40% of Black voters in Maryland, Hogan won 15% of the vote in 2014, then almost doubled his support in 2018, taking 29%. Consider this in the context of the 2020 Presidential election in Prince George’s County, where Donald Trump won a paltry 9% of the vote.
The good news for Democrats is that they already have a candidate in the running who has consistently turned out Black voters and continues to lead with them in every public primary poll.
Alsobrooks appeared on the same ballot as Hogan in 2018 when running for Prince George’s County Executive. While the Democratic gubernatorial nominee won 225,889 votes in the county, Alsobrooks won 294,372 votes — the most votes cast ever for County Executive in Prince George’s history. Larry Hogan won 89,925 there.
That means an astonishing 76% of Hogan’s voters in Prince George’s County crossed over to support Alsobrooks in the County Executive contest. The fact that Alsobrooks was running unopposed makes this even more astonishing — there was effectively no reason for Democrats to vote in this race, but they did, in overwhelming numbers.
The other factor to consider this year is the variation in turnout between gubernatorial and presidential election years.
In the 2020 presidential election, some 828,456 Black voters cast a ballot in Maryland. Yet, in the subsequent midterm election Black turnout dropped by 41%, with 488,515 Black voters turning out. (Hogan has only run in the lower turnout midterm elections.)
This November, it is reasonable to assume that Democrats have the potential to reach 2020 turnout levels among Black voters in Maryland, especially with a candidate who prioritizes Black voter engagement and can credibly mobilize the community. That would mean approximately 305,000 Black voters will cast a ballot in 2024 but did not vote in 2018 or 2014, and thus have never voted for Larry Hogan.
It is essential that the Democratic nominee in the Senate race in Maryland is poised to bring out these 305,000 voters in November. It is worth noting that 38% of these Black mobilization targets reside in Prince George’s County.
So while Larry Hogan presents an enticing opportunity for Republicans to win back Senate control through Maryland, Black voters stand as a potential firewall. The Democratic nominee must limit Hogan’s support with Black voters and mobilize a surge of presidential-year Black voters to the polls. Based on this analysis, Angela Alsobrooks is best positioned to execute this path to victory in November.
